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SOCIOECONOMIC MONITOR July 2009

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As was heard in President Gloria Macapagal-Arroy’s ostensibly last State of the Nation Address, the country is supposedly weathering the global crisis because of “strong economic fundamentals.” She has conveniently omitted a few things that would argue otherwise.

The President conveniently forgot to mention the state of foreign trade of the Philippines. Our balance of trade has not fared well since 2001 and in fact our trade deficit in 2008 was 7,669.00 up from 5,048.00 in 2007. (See chart, all F.O.B. value in million US Dollars) The latest data from the National Statistics Office shows that for May 2009 our trade deficit stands at 238 million USD. The President failed to mention in her SONA that the Philippines has had a trade deficit from 2001 to 2008. And for someone who prides herself in being an economist, surely she knows that this is not a good sign for the economy. 

A sizeable portion of the direction of our trade has been to our neighbors in Asia with East Asia having the majority of that share. (See table below)

According to the National Statistics Coordination Board (NSCB), our total exports went down to negative 18.2 percent from negative 7.7 percent last year and this they attribute to the further decline of merchandise exports. “The country’s total merchandise exports plunged deeper to negative 24.6 percent in the current quarter of 2009 from negative 10.9 percent in 2008. The lackluster performance of Merchandise Export was attributed to the slump in both Principal Merchandise Exports and Other Exports to negative 30.5 percent from negative 13.7 percent and negative 20.1 percent from 7.1 percent, respectively.” 

The NCSB details that the decline of merchandise exports can be attributed to the decline of the following items: Semiconductors and Electric Microcircuits, Finished Electrical Machinery, Crude Coconut Oil, Garments, Ignition Wiring Sets.

PHILIPPINES FOREIGN TRADE

Indicator

Latest

Year-Ago

Previous

Exports (1)

 

USD 3,087
million


May 2009

USD 4,225
million 
May 2008

USD 2,803
million


Apr 2009

Imports (1)

 

USD 3,041
million


Apr 2009

USD 4,856 
million


Apr 2008

USD 3,270
million


Mar 2009

Trade Balance

USD (238)
million


Apr 2009

USD (541)
million


Apr 2008

USD (472)
million


Mar 2009

(1) Freight on Board Value
Source: National Statistics Office

Foreign Trade of the Philippines
1990 to 2008
(F.O.B. value in million U.S. dollars)

Year

Total Trade

Exports

Imports

Balance of Trade Favorable (Unfavorable)

2008

105,824.00

49,078.00

56,746.00

(7,669.00)

2007

105,980.00

50,466.00

55,514.00

(5,048.00)

2006

99,183.79

47,410.12

51,773.68

(4,363.57)

2005

88,672.86

41,254.68

47,418.18

(6,163.50)

2004

83,719.73

39,680.52

44,039.21

(4,358.69)

2003

76,701.72

36,231.21

40,470.51

(4,239.30)

2002/r

74,444.67

35,208.16

39,236.51

(4,028.35)

2001/r

65,207.36

32,150.20

33,057.16

(906.96)

2000

72,569.12

38,078.25

34,490.87

3,587.38

1999

65,779.35

35,036.89

30,741.46

4,294.43

1998

59,156.64

29,496.75

29,659.89

(163.14)

1997

61,161.52

25,227.70

35,933.82

(10,706.12)

1996

52,969.48

20,542.55

32,426.93

(11,884.38)

1995

43,984.81

17,447.19

26,537.63

(9,090.44)

1994

34,815.46

13,482.90

21,332.57

(7,849.67)

1993

28,972.21

11,374.81

17,597.40

(6,222.59)

1992

24,343.24

9,824.31

14,518.93

(4,694.62)

1991

20,890.88

8,839.51

12,051.36

(3,211.85)

1990

20,392.19

8,186.03

12,206.16

(4,020.13)

Notes:

1. Details may not add up to totals due to rounding.

2. Exports include domestic exports and re-exports.
r - revised
Source: National Statistics Office


TOP TEN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
 1st Quarter 2008 and 1st Quarter 2009 (FOB Value in million pesos)
At Constant 1985 Prices

ITEMS

1st Qtr 2008

1st Qtr 2009

Growth Rate (%)

 1. Garments

9,822

8,250

-16.0

 2. Semiconductors and  electronic microcircuits

21,853

11,940

-45.4

 3. Finished elect'l machy

10,853

6,770

-37.6

 4. Other prods. manufactured

768

546

-29.0

 5. Ignition wiring sets

509

192

-62.3

 6. Crude coconut oil

3,505

1,722

-50.9

 7. Cathodes & Section of Cathodes, of Refined Copper*

2,828

3,521

24.5

 8. Shrimps and prawns

185

244

32.0

 9. Gold from copper ores

1,479

1,555

5.2

10. Banana and plantains

1,355

1,446

6.7



At Current Prices

ITEMS

1st Qtr 2008

1st Qtr 2009

Growth Rate (%)

 1. Garments

21,119

19,804

-6.2

 2. Semiconductors and  electronic microcircuits

168,138

100,411

-40.3

 3. Finished elect'l machy

31,064

23,037

-25.8

 4. Other prods. manufactured

7,584

6,904

-9.0

 5. Ignition wiring sets

10,087

4,653

-53.9

 6. Crude coconut oil

8,199

2,365

-71.2

 7. Cathodes & Section of Cathodes, of Refined Copper*

11,045

7,046

-36.2

 8. Shrimps and prawns

447

500

11.8

 9. Gold from copper ores

4,773

5,738

20.2

10. Banana and plantains

3,826

4,832

26.3

*Formerly Bars, Rods of Copper





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