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Socio-Economic Monitor

2010 Automated Elections: 37% Chance of Success, Contingency Measures and Comelec Resolution 8839

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Following reports of PCOS poll counting errors and the specter of an automated Garci, HALALANG MARANGAL (HALAL) recently raised its rating for the 2010 AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM (AES), from a 25% Chance of Success to a 37% Chance of Success. While there is positive increase in the chance of success, this still means that automation has a 63% chance of failing. Earlier HALAL released an open letter to the COMELEC identifying 3 THINGS the COMELEC can do to assuage people’s concerns: Assign unique identifier for PCOS Machines; Authorize printing of Election Returns (ERs); Manual Audit of Votes for President. Given that elections is just days away, this call nevertheless is still very important, as it highlights key areas where we anticipate snags. (Please read full article here)

As of this writing, the COMELEC has denied the possibility of a manual count, saying that it is only prepared to go manual for 30% of precincts should glitches occur. COMELEC instead recently put out RESOLUTION 8839, which details emergency measures to be taken in connection with the 2010 automated elections. (Please read resolution here)  In COMELEC RESOLUTION 8839, the COMMISSION ON ELECTIONS lays down contingency procedures that will be taking effect should there be any hitches in the conduct of the automated 2010 elections. Section 2 provides the organizational structure for carrying out the contingency plan. SECTION 3 covers procedures related to national canvassing or problems involving the central and national operation of the automated system, while Section 4 deals with provincial to municipal level issues. Problems and measures related to the PRECINCT COUNT OPTICAL SCAN (PCOS)  are tackled in SECTION 5.

As in previous elections, it is important to be vigilant and informed.

 

HALALANG MARANGAL’s (HALAL) Assessment of Automated Election System:

 

 

March 2010

April 2010

Overall AES Chance of Success

25%

32%

     Hardware

80%

80%

     Software

70%

70%

    Logistics

80%

90%

    Transmission

70%

90%

    Ballot Printing

80%

70%

Aghast at the April Bill: MERALCO POWER RATE HIKE

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Metro Manila electricity consumers are up in arms this April, after finding out their bills nearly doubled. The web has become the site of choice for consumer action. One blogger wrote,
“I've been very depressed since Thursday upon receiving my Meralco bill for one month worth PHP 41,902.95 pesos. I have lost sleep and energy to do anything trying to make sense of this. How can the government allow this? I cannot understand why we have a president who doesn't care about the people. I am hoping that the next president will address this problem of oppression. Electricity isn't like PLDT and Globe where you can just switch if you're unhappy with the service. People need electricity to survive. Our kids need aircon in this heat. I want to know who is getting rich at our expense because I'm SO MAD AND I'M NOT GONNA TAKE THIS ANYMORE.”
This appears to be a widely shared sentiment, whether a household is consuming less than 100 kWh or more. Bloggers are comparing bills, and an online petition has been launched on the social networking site FACEBOOK.  

Meralco, addressing this growing number of angry consumers, explained on their website: we are only distributing electricity, it’s in generation where charges went up. It’s our suppliers, silly.

In the words of Jose P. De Jesus, President and Chief Operating Officer of Meralco,
“The rise in generation charges springs from the high cost of electricity that Meralco buys from its suppliers. These suppliers consist of the National Power Corporation (NCP), Independent Power Producers (IPP) and Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). Meralco does not add any mark-up to the cost of electricity purchased from these electricity suppliers. The generation cost, which averages about 50-60% of your electric bill, goes directly to Meralco’s power suppliers and adds nothing to Meralco’s income.” 

Generation rates increased by approximately 0.93 centavos/kWh—from P 5.817/kWh in March to P 6.7699 in April. (see table below) The increase in charges supposedly do not go to Meralco, but are only ‘pass-through’ components that go to electricity suppliers, such as Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
Of course we shouldn’t simply take Meralco’s word for it. For one, the Freedom from Debt Coalition’s POWER campaign has always maintained an alternative view. In ’10 Reasons Why Electricity Bills are High’ for instance, FDC pointed out,

“MERALCO has always claimed that it doesn’t earn from the high generation charges of its IPPs, and that it is merely passing on to its IPPs whatever it charges its customers for generation. MERALCO is telling the truth. But that is not the entire picture. For while MERALCO doesn’t itself earn from the high generation charges of its IPPs, the Lopezes do. A simple review of the financial statements of the Lopez holding company and its generation companies will show this.”

The Lopez family, a key shareholder of MERALCO, also owns Sta. Rita and San Lorenzo plants. Sta Rita’s average generation charge increased by P 1.8579/kWh, while San Lorenzo’s went up by P1.4919/kWh, according to Meralco’s computation. Generation charges on the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) also increased by P 1.9783/kWh. MERALCO attributes billing charge hikes primarily on WESM prices.

Clearly, groups such as FDC are not only pinning the blame on one family. They point to several interrelated factors and conditions, including inherent weaknesses of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) and resulting flaws in the WESM, the failures of privatization, and the pitfalls of oligopoly control over essential services. In other words, expensive power rates should be viewed as a bigger contradiction. More than just scrutinizing the fine print in our electricity bills, it must be traced back to conditions that characterize the power industry in the country.

“EPIRA has spelled out the provisions to create competition in the industry but on the contrary the law actually institutionalized oligopoly in the system where the market is dominated by a small number of players who are able to collectively exert control over supply and market prices. EPIRA provisions are in fact founded on oligopolistic market structure which is ironically inconsistent with its primary objective to promote competition in the power sector,” according to FDC.

Short of saying, it’s the oligopoly, stupid, groups such as FDC underscore the importance of empowering and organizing consumers. Empowered consumers serve as a counterforce to corporate excesses and profit-centered service provision. Rather than confine action to routine monthly complaints, electricity consumers must be provided the space to participate in decision-making processes that affect them, in order to reclaim and transform the power industry. Formations such as EmPOWER Consumers and National Association of Electricity Consumers for Reforms (NASECORE) are among existing formations that push for more meaningful consumer interventions in the industry.

The Generation Charge is a pass-through component of the Meralco bill. The level of the Generation Charge is adjusted on a monthly basis as prescribed by the Energy Regulatory Commission in its Order dated October 13, 2004 under ERC Case No. 2004-322 approving the "Guidelines for the Automatic Adjustment of Generation Rates and System Loss Rates by Distribution Utilities" or the AGRA.

   COMPUTATION of the GENERATION CHARGE for April 2010*    (Applicable for Customers Not Under TOU, CCP, and Ecozone)
             Based on March 2010 Generation Costs

Source

(A) 
GWH 
(million kWh) Purchased

(B) 
Energy Share 
(%)

(C) 
Basic Generation Cost 
(PhP)

(D) 
Other Cost Adjustments 
(PhP)

(E = C+D) 
Total Generation Cost for the Month 
(PhP)

(F = E/A) 
Average Gen Cost 
(March 2010) 
(PhP/kWh)

(G) 
Average Gen Cost 
(February 2010) 
(PhP/kWh)

(H) 
Incr / 
(Decr) (PhP/kWh)

 

 

 

NPC and WESM

  NPC**

759.02

34.14%

4,313.87

(101.85)b

4,212.03

5.5493   

5.4664   

0.0829

 

 

 

  WESM***

389.56

17.52%

4,729.67

(304.01)c

4,425.66

11.3607   

9.3824 A

1.9783

 

 

 

  Subtotal

1,148.58

51.66%

9,043.54

(405.86)  

8,637.68

7.5203   

6.6709   

0.8495

 

 

 

IPPs

Dispatch a

  QPPL

96.05%

302.20

13.59%

1,341.57

(0.64) d

1,340.93

4.4372   

5.4799   

(1.0426)

 

 

 

  Sta. Rita

61.70%

432.45

19.45%

2,923.30

-     

2,923.30

6.7598 e

4.9019 B

1.8579

 

 

 

  San Lorenzo

96.04%

339.52

15.27%

1,998.06

-     

1,998.06

5.8850 e

4.3931   

1.4919

 

 

 

  Subtotal

78.39%

1,074.17

48.32%

6,262.93

(0.64)   

6,262.29

5.8299   

4.8292   

1.0007

 

 

 

 

Philpodeco

0.29

0.01%

1.16

-     

1.16

3.9688   

4.6651   

(0.6963)

 

 

 

MMPC

0.13

0.01%

0.87

-     

0.87

6.4692   

6.4655   

0.0038

 

 

 

 

TOTAL

2,223.17

100.0%

15,308.50

(406.50) 

14,902.00

6.7030   

5.8520   

0.8510

 

 

 

 

Generation Rate Adjustments

 

   Pilferage Recovery

(0.0274) f

(0.0275) 

0.0001

 

 

 

   High Load Factor Rider

0.0220    

0.0147  

0.0073

 

 

 

   TOU Differential

0.0022  g

0.0024  

(0.0002)

 

 

 

   Amortization of March 2010 under recovery

0.0700    

0.0000  

0.0700

 

 

 

Generation Charge

Billing Month ----->      

6.7699   

April 2010

5.8417   

March 2010

0.9282

 

 

 

 

Notes:

* based on March 2010 supply month preliminary bills of power suppliers

** includes NPC TSC, Assigned TSC (Masinloc, Makban, Pagbilao, Sual and Calaca) and residual from NPC special programs

*** based on March 2010 preliminary bill and other WESM adjustments; WESM purchases were 14.5% of Net System Input.

 

 

a - The dispatch figures shown are the capacity factors of the IPPs' power plants.

b - for GRAM, ICERA, Franchise and Benefits to Host Communities, and NPC Station Service

c - for Market Fees and other billing adjustments

d - adjustment for transmission line fee

e - The rise in IPP’s overall generation cost was due to the increase in First Gas' cost of fuel due to the use of condensate as a result of the scheduled maintenance of the Camago-Malampaya pipeline which started last February 10, 2010 and lasted until March 13, 2010.

f - represents the amount of PhP60.8 million pilferage recovery returned by Meralco to its customers

g - calculated based on the formula provisionally-approved by the ERC on June 27, 2007 in ERC Case No. 2007-111 RC

 

 

A - In accordance with ERC's Provisional Approval dated March 10, 2010. WESM purchases in excess of 10% of the total energy supplied to regular customers were priced at NPC rate

B,C - In accordance with ERC's Provisional Approval dated March 10, 2010. First Gas fuel costs were supressed and based on natural gas prices only.

    Actual generation cost sourced from Sta. Rita was Php2.8billion @ Php6.0286/kWh

    Actual generation cost sourced from San Lorenzo was Php2.2billion @ Php5.7664/kWh


[1] (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Protest-against-MERALCO-electricity-price-hike/108570395847404?ref=mf)

[2] http://www.meralco.com.ph/Consumer/news/meralco_NW02410.html

[3] http://www.meralco.com.ph/Corporate/rates/gentrans.htm


Focus on Women and Men in the Philippines -- Closing the Gender Gap?

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by Mary Ann Manahan

"We are proud of the gains in gender equality in the Philippines. We are number one in the world in terms of gender parity in literacy and in health." –Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s pronouncement during the Luncheon with the Soroptimist International of the Philippines Region, May 2008.
The World Economic Forum ranked the Philippines 9th (out of 134 countries) in its 2009 Global Gender Gap Index. The report’s Index “assesses countries on how well they allocate their resources and opportunities among male and female populations, regardless of the overall levels of these resources and opportunities”.  The index covers economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival, political empowerment, and basic rights and social institutions.

For the first time in four years, the Philippines slipped from its 6th position but remains the leading Asian country in the rankings. The Nordic countries’ continue to dominate the top four—Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, with African countries such as South Africa (6th) and Lesotho (10th) making great strides in closing their gender gaps.

2009 in Figures

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Focus on the Philippines 2009 Yearbook includes some key statistics on national income accounts, prices and inflation, employment and remittances. Summary tables on GDP growth and employment are reproduced below.

 

 

SOCIOECONOMIC MONITOR July 2009

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As was heard in President Gloria Macapagal-Arroy’s ostensibly last State of the Nation Address, the country is supposedly weathering the global crisis because of “strong economic fundamentals.” She has conveniently omitted a few things that would argue otherwise.

The President conveniently forgot to mention the state of foreign trade of the Philippines. Our balance of trade has not fared well since 2001 and in fact our trade deficit in 2008 was 7,669.00 up from 5,048.00 in 2007. (See chart, all F.O.B. value in million US Dollars) The latest data from the National Statistics Office shows that for May 2009 our trade deficit stands at 238 million USD. The President failed to mention in her SONA that the Philippines has had a trade deficit from 2001 to 2008. And for someone who prides herself in being an economist, surely she knows that this is not a good sign for the economy. 

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