This is a transcript of the Die Tagezeitzung's interview with Walden Bello.
Dr. Bello, what is is the impact of the current crisis on the global South?
The
current global crisis will definitely have a massive impact on the
South. It is especially those economies that globalized most fully and
followed strategies of export-oriented industrialization that tied
their growth to foreign markets that will suffer most. Those countries
that have globalized least, like many in Africa, will be much less
affected.
Could you give examples?
Exports
have declined precipitously throughout the East Asian region. China
has seen 20 million workers lose their jobs in the last few months,
according to the Chinese government. The value of the Korean won has
fallen by over 30 per cent in the last few months. Remittances are
going to fall and laid off migrant workers are going to return in
Indonesia and the Philippines. Argentina and Brazil's agricultural
exports are in a freefall.
Are you afraid of a further worsening of the situation?
Yes,
definitely. We are just at the beginning of the global freefall and I
really don't know when we are going to hit rock bottom and once we
reach it, how long the global economy will lie there. The global
economy is just like a German U-Boat that has been depthcharged, and
it's descending rapidly to the ocean bottom, and once it reaches the
bottom, you don't know how the crew is going to get the submarine back
up. Will the crew's tortuous maneuvers get it back to the surface, as
in the film Das Boot, or will it just stay at the bottom? Will Keynesian methods of reflation work today? We don't know.
How
do you assess the politics and economic program of US president Obama
and his administration with respect to global matters?
I
think that in terms of economic policies, the administration is turning
inward, away from policies of globalization and free trade. It talks
about multilateralism and against protectionism, but this is largely
words still. I think Obama's overwhelming priority is to stabilize the
US economy and foreign economic policy can wait. Will the US take a
leading role in creating a global financial architecture, with strong
regulatory controls at next month's G 20 meeting in London? I think
rhetorically yes, but the focus of regulatory work in the US will be
domestic. Once the freefall of the US economy stops, then you will see
Obama move on to international economic issues.
What about the European Union?
The
EU is probably going to look inward too, but whether it will come out
with viable region-wide policies or revert to national policies of
stabilization remains to be seen. I think that the support for
multilateralism and globalist policies is going to erode in Europe.
You will see a similar turning inward, as in the United States. I
worry about what will happen to the migrant workers from the South and
from the East under conditions of economic contraction. Racism and
ethnic prejudices might run riot.
What do you expect from the upcoming G20 summit in Londonwikth respect to calming the global economic turbulenc?
No.
I think the conditions are not there to create a new Bretton Woods
system. Everybody is still at the "every man for himself" stage.
There is little support for a reform of the IMF and bigger role for the
World Bank. There is little support for completing the Doha Round of
the WTO because of distrust of globalization. People also see the
Basel process as having failed to come up with the necessary regulatory
framework for the banks. There will be a great deal of rhetoric about
multilateralism but little reality.
What should urgently be done to avoid the deepening of deglobalisation and disintegration?
Deglobalization
must not be equated with disintegration. Given the excesses of
globalization and the way it made economies so vulnerable to collapse
because it integrated markets and production and did away with
protective barriers between the domestic economy and the international
economy, deglobalization accompanied by regionalization of economies
and the strengthening of national economies is a good thing. The
problem with globalization is that it destroyed national economies.
The challenge for us now is how to create a global system where
participation in the international economy strengthens the capacity of
national economies rather than destroys them.
What
would be the appropriate contribution by the politically and socially
critical spectrum in the North to stop disintegration?
We
must see this as an opportunity to create a deglobalized world, where
there is more equality between and within countries, where countries
can pursue economic policies that respond to their values, goals, and
rhythms as societies instead of being crammed within a neoliberal
one-shoe-fits-all-model, where diversity, as in nature, is seen as a
strength, where there is space to pursue sustainable development
policies that do not reproduce the high consumption model of the
North. I repeat: crisis spells opportunity.
What is your general assessment of the stand of the Left and the social movements in answering the crisis?
The
Left has the theoretical tools to understand the crisis, and here the
Marxist analysis of capitalism's tendency to overaccumulation and
overproduction, including the insights of Rosa Luxemburg, are very
important. Where the challenge lies is in building a mass movement
globally and nationally to promote an anti-capitalist soution to the
crisis, a solution that lies in democratizing the economy along with a
fuller democratization of politics. We must move fast, because it
people are not persuaded to go left, they might be persuaded to go
right, and we don't want countries falling into a Germany-in-the-1930's
kind of scenario again.
What changes are now necessary?
The changes I've alluded to above.
Thank you very much for answering the questions. Is there an up-to-date photograph of yours available?
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